Social Security's raise for 2028 will be set in October 2027, and it will be exactly the rise in one price index, the CPI-W, between the summer of 2026 and the summer of 2027. That makes it possible to track. As of the September 2026 figures, prices measured by the CPI-W are up 3.9% from a year earlier. If that pace holds until next summer, the 2028 raise would be about 3.9%, a little more than the 3.6% raise in this year's checks.
For someone getting $1,900 a month, that would mean about $1,974 starting January 2028, or $889 more over the year. Someone with $1,200 would go to about $1,247, and someone with $2,600 to about $2,701.
Inflation over the past year
The bars show how much higher prices were each month than in the same month a year before. July, August and September 2026 averaged a 3.6% rise over the year before, and that became the 2027 raise. The same three months of 2027 will decide the 2028 raise. Every month before then is a preview, not part of the formula. October 2025 is missing because the government shutdown stopped price collection that month.
How the raise is calculated
The rule is in the Social Security Act, so Congress and the President do not vote on it each year. Social Security takes the average CPI-W for July, August and September of this year and divides it by the same average from last year. The July to September 2026 average was 328.746. If the 2027 average comes in at 338.609, the raise is 3.0%. If it comes in at 341.896, it is 4.0%. The result is rounded to one decimal place, and it can never be negative.
The CPI-W tracks prices paid by working households, not retirees. Retirees spend more of their money on health care and housing, which often rise faster than other prices, so many people feel the raise falls short. Congress has considered switching to an index built around older households, but the CPI-W is still the law.
Past raises
| Year paid | Raise | Year paid | Raise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1.7% | 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2016 | 0.0% | 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2017 | 0.3% | 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2018 | 2.0% | 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2019 | 2.8% | 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2020 | 1.6% | 2027 | 3.6% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
The 8.7% raise for 2023 was the largest in more than 40 years, after prices jumped in 2022. Since then raises have settled between 2.5% and 3.6%.
Questions
When will the 2028 COLA be announced?
In October 2027, on the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September 2027 prices. Social Security announces the raise the same morning. It shows up in the January 2028 check, and SSI recipients get it with the payment dated December 31, 2027.
How accurate is an estimate this early?
Not very, and nobody can make it accurate a year out. The raise depends only on prices in July, August and September 2027. Until those months arrive, the best guide is how fast prices are rising now, which is 3.9% over the past year. Inflation can speed up or cool off a lot in twelve months, so expect this number to move.
Can the COLA be zero?
Yes. If prices in July to September are not higher than the year before, there is no raise, and benefits stay the same rather than going down. That happened for 2010, 2011 and 2016.
Does the Social Security raise apply to my state pension?
No. Your state or local pension has its own rule, set by its own law. Some plans give a fixed raise every year, some follow inflation with a cap, and some give nothing unless the legislature acts. Each plan page on this site has a COLA page with its rule.
Will Medicare take part of the raise?
Often, yes. The Part B premium usually comes out of your Social Security check, and Medicare sets the new premium each fall. A hold-harmless rule stops the premium increase from making most people's net check smaller than the year before, but it can absorb much of a small raise.
See also the 2027 raise explained, 2027 payment dates and your plan's own COLA rule on its plan page.